Prediction-armagedon

Apparently the end of the fifth long-cycle Mayan calendar passed without even a whimper, let alone a bang. The question now becomes:


Does prediction work?

In the School of Wicca we have asked students to report psychic experiences; many such reports involve predictions. It is notable that the shorter-term (say, less than a year) seem to work better than longer-term predictions. We have begun to think that prediction is like a game of chess: You can see several moves ahead, but not too many. It may be that the Mayans saw ahead many thousands of years but then decided that their predictions would not be realizable after five cycles.

The longest-term and best prediction we know of is that of Mother Shipton, who foresaw such things as the motor-car, the submarine, and space travel, getting down to such details as the color of the astronauts' uniforms. Nostradamus is often quoted as being one of the best predictors of all time; but looking carefully at his rhymes, there are often many interpretations possible. Intentionally or not, he often used such ambiguities that his verses can be made to fit events in almost any decade since he fastened them down.

So if we give Mother Shipton and Nostradamus a thousand years and the Mayans 15 thousand, then to us it is not surprising that the winter solstice on the 21st went by without incident.

We were all packed, too. Shucks.